Over the past 10 years, much has been made of India’s rise as a global economic powerhouse. Boasting the world’s second biggest population, a large English-speaking labor and consumer base, and dynamic technology sector, India continues to attract investment. The cold chain industry has seen rapid growth and, despite some challenges, is poised for further transformation.

 

        “The most common assumption about the cold chain industry in India is that there isn’t enough capacity. Space isn’t the problem,” explains Atul Khanna, Global Cold Chain Alliance (GCCA) India Director. “Modernization is the issue.”

        Cold chain development in India was initially focused on building storage capacity for single commodity bulk storage such as potatoes or dried chilies. The need to develop the entire temperature-controlled logistics chain in order to link producing points with consumption centers, as well as offer multi-commodity storage, was gradually realized. The government has prioritized its modernization and, in 2009, introduced technical standards for cold chain projects, as well as financial incentives for investors, which resulted in positive growth.

 

        India has seen a dramatic increase in the production of perishable products including fruits, vegetables, meat, poultry, and dairy. It ranks first in global milk production with an annual rate of 138 million tons and hosts more than 50 percent of milk product processing. With vegetable production of 280.4 million tons, it ranks second globally and only hosts 6 percent of total processing. There has also been steady growth in the fish and meat industries due to export potential.

        Current cold storage capacity in India totals 31.8 million tons. Growth has averaged 3 to 4 percent over the past 10 years, and 10.5 mil- lion tons of space was created in the last seven years. Ownership is mainly in the private sector, with the public and cooperative sectors only comprising 10 percent of capacity. The sector’s value is estimated at $6.5 billion (USD) and market growth has averaged between 15 to 20 percent. This pace is expected to be consistent over the next five years.

 

        Despite the sector’s growth, there is still a gap of 3.28 million tons in bulk and hub cold storage space, as well as estimated product loss of 25 percent. “Another assumption is that perishable products get discarded because of inadequate infrastructure. Instead, products are diminished in quality and value,” Khanna clarifies. Analysis of the industry has revealed that investment in modern pack houses and refrigerated transport are critical to link producers to markets, meet demand, and reduce this loss.

        It is estimated that there are less than 10,000 refrigerated transport vehicles and no domestic reefer rail options. The majority of operators are private and cannot offer end-to-end cold chain solutions – 79 percent do not own any transportation facilities. To compare, France has five million tons in cold storage space, 5 percent of India’s capacity, and 140,000 reefer vehicles. However, the prospects for improvement are promising due to the national prioritization of developing rural road infrastructure.

        Power deficits have also been an important consideration. Cold storage facilities do generally employ back-up diesel generator sets. There are also promising efforts to promote solar energy generation for cold chain projects through financial incentives and more broadly increase national power generation capacity.

 

        “The Indian government has played a critical role to support cold chain development and reduce post-harvest loss,” asserts Arvind Surange, Chief Consultant, ACR Project Consultants.

        In 2014, the Ministry of Agriculture introduced a “Mission for Integrated Development of Horticulture,” which prioritizes cold-chain development to enhance yields and ensure gainful end use. The Ministry of Food Processing Industries is operating an initiative on cold chain and preservation infrastructure, in addition to other programs that develop processing units. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce is operating a subsidy scheme to enhance exports that includes necessary export-oriented cold chain components.

        The government also offers financial incentives including an excise duties concession on components used in cold chain construction and a service tax exemption on construction of cold chain plants and machinery. Some states, like Maharashtra, have offered concessions on energy rates for cold storage facilities. Overall, operators can receive federal subsidies of 35 to 40 percent on project costs and even additional subsidies from certain state governments.

 

        Retail Growth is a Key Driver

        Spurred by economic liberalization and demographic changes, the Indian market is one of the most attractive retail destinations in the world. Its overall size in 2013-2014 was estimated at $534 billion (USD) and is expected to nearly double, reaching $948 billion in 2018-2019. Food and grocery retailing is one of the key high growth categories, and while grocery retail is largely restricted to domestic players, it will still be an important driver for the cold chain industry.

        The sector’s fragmented structure is its greatest opportunity and challenge. Of the 12 to 15 million retail outlets in operation, only 4 percent are larger than 500 square feet and the majority are family-owned and operated. The number of modern trade stores is expected to increase from 11,192 in 2006 to 67,100 by 2016. The number of supermarkets is also expected to increase from 500 in 2006 to 8,500 in 2016. In August 2015, Walmart opened its first modern wholesale store since 2012, as part of a plan to expand from 20 stores to 70 stores within five years. This immense potential for growth and consolidation will certainly spur demand for products reliant on the cold chain infrastructure.

        “Consumer tastes are changing. Indians used to consume what was in season but now they want things year round,” states Khanna. “So they don’t mind spending more for products that are imported or stored in the off-season.” These demographic changes reveal the need for more robust cold chain capacity to meet this demand.

        ---Middle Class: Estimated at 75 million households or 300 million individuals, this large and aspirational segment of the population is helping to transform national spending habits. India’s personal disposable income growth, both per capita and overall, have grown faster than other key emerging markets including Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, China, and Indonesia.

        ---Youth and Working Population: As reported in the 2011 census, there are 500 million Indians under the age of 25 and more than 50% of the population falls between the working age of 15 to 54 years of age. These two groups have consequential influence on consumer spending.

        ---Millionaires: According to the World Wealth Report 2014, the number of millionaires grew by 51 percent, the second fastest in the Asia-Pacific Region. This rise is driving the luxury market, which was worth $7.7 billion (USD) in 2012, and expected to double to $14 billion in 2015.

        ---Rural Consumers: Rural markets make up 70 percent of the population base yet only 40 percent of total consumption, primarily due to limited penetration of the formal retail sector. Investment in expanding the cold chain infrastructure, as well as expected annual 6.5 percent GDP growth from 2013-2019, will increase demand.

 

        “The cold chain industry in India is considered a sunrise industry,” states Surange. “And local investment is just as poised to transform its potential as is Foreign Direct Investment.”

        With large domestic and export markets, as well as a conducive operating and regulatory environment, the future looks bright.

 

        印度在过去的10年里取得了诸多成就，崛起为全球经济大国。印度拥有世界第二大人口数量,大量会说英语的劳动力和消费群体,以及充满活力的技术领域。基于此，印度不断吸引投资。印度冷链行业虽然面临一些挑战，但仍保持快速增长,并准备好进一步转变。

 

        全球冷链联盟印度理事Atul Khanna解释说：“关于印度冷链行业最常见的说法是没有足够的能力，容量不是难题,现代化才是问题。”印度冷链发展最初侧重于为单一商品散装储存建立仓储，比如土豆或干辣椒。而后逐步实现发展整个温控物流链，以链接生产点与消费中心,以及提供多种商品储存的需求。印度政府积极推动冷链现代化,2009年,不仅为冷链项目引入技术标准,而且为投资者提供财务激励。这些举措刺激了印度冷链行业的正增长。

 

        印度已经大幅增加易腐产品生产,包括水果、蔬菜、肉类、家禽和奶制品。牛奶产量每年1.38亿吨，其中超过50%的牛奶再加工，其在全球牛奶产量排名第一。蔬菜产量2.804亿吨,全球排名第二，但其中只有6%的蔬菜经过再加工处理。在鱼和肉产业，由于出口潜力大，也在稳定增长。

        印度目前冷库总容量3180万吨。过去10年，冷库平均每年增长3 %- 4%。在过去的7年,建立了1050万吨的冷藏容量。冷库所有权主要是在私营企业,公共与合资企业只占10%。该行业估值为65亿美元，冷链市场平均增长率在15 - 20%之间。这个发展速度在未来五年内有望保持不变。

        尽管该行业在增长,但仍存在328万吨冷藏分拨中心缺口,估计产品损耗达到25%。Khanna 澄清说：“有另一个说法是易腐产品因为基础设施不足导致损坏而被弃，而且产品在质量和价值上降低,”。行业分析显示，投资现代包装和冷藏运输对链接生产者与市场,满足需求,减少损失是至关重要的。

        据估计,印度有不到10000辆藏运输车辆，国内没有冷藏铁路运输。大多数运营商是私有企业,不能提供端到端冷链解决方案，其中79%不拥有任何运输设备。相比法国,法国有500万吨冷藏空间和140000辆冷藏车辆。另外，电力赤字也是重要的考虑因素。冷库设施一般采用备用柴油发电机组。通过财政激励和更广泛地提高国家发电能力的，有希望实现推动太阳能发电在冷链项目的应用。

 

        印度政府在支持冷链发展、减少收获后损失方面发挥了关键作用。2014年,农业部出台了“园艺集成开发任务”,强调重视冷链发展，确保丰收增加收益。食品加工行业部委正在实施关于冷链和基础设施的项目，以促进食品加工的发展。此外,商务部操作补贴计划,加强出口,包括出口冷链产品。政府还提供财政奖励措施，包括在冷链建设中使用的部件关税减让，以及建设冷库和机械设备服务税减免。一些州，如马哈拉施特拉，为冷库的电费价格提供了优惠。总体而言，运营商可获得联邦35%-40%项目成本的补贴，甚至从某些州政府的额外补贴。

 

        受经济自由化和人口变化的刺激,印度市场是世界上最具吸引力的零售目的地之一。其总体规模在2013 - 2014年估计为5340亿美元，预计在2018 - 2019年将增长近一倍,达到9480亿美元。食品和杂货零售业是主要的高增长品类,它将是冷链行业的重要推动力。

 

        冷链行业在印度被认为是朝阳产业,地方投资正准备将其潜力转化为外商直接投资。巨大的国内和出口市场,以及有利于操作和监管环境,印度冷链行业未来一定会是光明的。

 

        说明：原文作者Bsrat Mezghebe，发表于COLD FACTS 杂志。中文简译部分由冷链委国际部编译，如有不准确的地方，欢迎指正。